BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Michigan has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has risen sharply in Michigan: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.05–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.05–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.050.36
20260.200.050.36
20270.200.050.36
20280.200.050.36
20290.200.050.36

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cunard320161975
Ontonagon220191969
Marenisco220181981
Ishpeming220211980
Brocky Lake220221980
Creighton220211980
Isabella219981969
Bravo219881981
Howardsville220212007
Hiawatha Nf220142007
Allegan Wma219981998
Sidnaw220241993
Harrietta119961996
Bergland120161987
Bootjack120231993
Ned Lake120221987
Herman120131984
Crystal Fls120221981
Gibbs City120191979
Maple Grove120241970
Wilson120091970
Shingleton120151979
Bear Lake119791971
Scottville119851983
Big Blue Lk120191987

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.