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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Pennsylvania has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has risen sharply in Pennsylvania: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.12–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.12–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.110.31
20260.210.110.31
20270.210.110.31
20280.210.110.31
20290.210.120.32

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Pine Grove320241984
Clover220001994
Akeley219731971
Rasselas220221999
Mawr Glen220191984
Ralston219721972
Marsh Hill220191983
Waller220231971
Portersville219751975
Plesant Grov220151998
Kaylor220141971
Peru Mills220121968
Jefferson220081983
Gatchelville219831975
Mill Run220241978
Stoneybreak220231997
Espyville120071971
Harmonsburg120171981
Ferris Crnrs120241970
Whig Hill120231967
Teepleville120031969
Sigel120211981
Lynch120241970
N Washington120021968
Pottersdale120171969

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.