BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Florida has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+125%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Florida: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Florida is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Florida is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.030.19
20260.110.030.19
20270.110.030.19
20280.110.030.19
20290.110.030.19

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oak Grove320161967
Blountstown220241968
Telogia219811981
Covington219781978
Ft Gadsden220171979
Eglin A.F.B.220101995
Betts220241987
Ft Waltn Bch120041972
Mossy Head120031968
Broad Branch120231978
Miccosukee120221977
Seminole Hls119941978
Port St Joe120011988
Steinhatchee119931993
Apalachicola119931987
Micanopy119871970
Lovedale120082002
St Augustine119771977
Laurel Hill120242022
St Vincent I120112011
Doctor Inlet119761976
Santa Rosa119921992
Blackwater120171995
Defuniak Spr120181990
Miller Xrds120181991

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.