BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-60%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.32
20260.080.000.32
20270.080.000.31
20280.080.000.31
20290.070.000.30

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diberville319811979
Scooba319791974
Duffee319791978
Sandy Creek220002000
Lucien219871975
Mt Carmel219921974
Trace Lorman220182018
Cybur220192003
Tupelo219871971
Neely220112001
Waynesboro220101987
Necaise219881986
Lake Mary119741974
Beverly119971969
Dundee120181979
Commerce119851969
Lake Como120131984
Utica120061980
Fayette120081968
Olive Branch119831969
Cockrum120162016
Walthall119791971
Duck Hill119961990
Forest120221993
Grenada Lake120192019

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.