BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New Jersey is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New Jersey is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.26
20260.050.000.25
20270.050.000.25
20280.040.000.25
20290.040.000.25

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ancora219671967
Croton219901970
Robbinsville219661966
Pomona220231992
Woodbury Hgt119981986
Greenwich119931976
Six Points119821982
Toms River120161976
Albion119901972
Bennett Mill119681968
Sandbrook119861975
Holmansville119751975
Clarksville119731973
New Bedford120111980
Hope119771970
Midvale120161973
Kemah Lake120241966
Bloomsbury119811981
High Point120241987
Dover120221978
Pottersville119841984
Friendship120241988
Mt Misery119871987
Cape May Ch119961996
Pedricktown120062000

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.