BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Kentucky has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Kentucky is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±225.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Kentucky is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.030.32
20260.180.030.33
20270.180.030.33
20280.180.030.33
20290.180.030.33

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Monticello320181992
Levee319821967
Levee 2320182007
Cumberlnd Gp220151968
Mammoth Cave220141999
Apex220082008
Pleasurevill219971997
Plum220212010
East Union220211983
Beattyville 2220132007
Brownsville120232023
Lovelacevile119811981
Shiloh119861986
Canton120111981
Cedar Grove119941994
Sulphur Lick120221968
Hegira120191988
Sunnybrook120221996
Mammoth Cave North120112011
Pippa Passes119931993
Carter120182006
Kehoe 2120142006
Million119801980
Kings Mtn120171985
Hustonville120211981

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.