BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in New York has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+136%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in New York: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.09–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.09–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.080.29
20260.190.080.29
20270.190.080.30
20280.190.080.30
20290.190.090.30

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oxford 2520221978
Old Forge 2420172007
Westbrookvle319661966
Canadice L320231976
Newcomb319991975
Westhampton219681968
Hauppauge219881988
Warwick219731973
Middletown219751975
Oxford219671967
Randolph220081984
Cherry Hill219851971
Nashville220182018
Mckeever220221976
Kasoag220241973
Highmarket220241979
Blue Ridge S220101988
Inlet220171979
North Easton220241967
Warrensburg220181970
Hopkinton220142010
Underwood219961975
Underwood 2220062006
Manorville119841967
Bedford119841969

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.