BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Tennessee is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.17–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Tennessee is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.17–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.150.59
20260.370.150.59
20270.380.160.59
20280.380.160.60
20290.380.170.60

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Signal Mtn420241981
Willis Sprng420231994
Jasper420241972
Indian Mound319911977
Oliver Spgs320181969
Jefferson Cty320041966
Cades Cove320232004
Big Sandy220221981
Sweetlips220091971
Petersburg219841970
Fish Springs220211967
Tiptonville120152006
Jones Gap120191982
Moscow120121990
Mecca120231996
Whiteville120191997
Mansfield119701970
Silerton120071966
Trenton120102010
Harbuck120231996
Pond Creek120241989
Collinwood120231968
Wrigley120101968
Campbellsville120151967
Lewis Forest120241967

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.