BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Minnesota has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Minnesota: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Minnesota is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.05–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Minnesota is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.05–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.050.30
20260.170.050.30
20270.170.050.30
20280.180.050.30
20290.180.050.30

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cromwell320241967
Floodwood320241970
Tamarac Nwr220231992
Cass Lake220121981
Nebish220231982
Island Lake219921972
Lude220211982
Mahtowa220231995
Chisholm220242023
Money Creek120151985
Millville120171973
Minnetonka120211986
Princeton120162016
St Stephen119911991
Gluek119691969
Wigwam Bay120231974
Mille Lacs120231967
Backus120241968
Pine River120151970
Edwards120031978
Evergreen120241968
Hovland120211973
Lockport120211967
Sawbill Lndg120151978
Hart Lake120231972

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.