BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Birds Of Prey In Arizona

All statesArizona

22 species in this guild. As a group they are -2%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for birds of prey in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Birds Of Prey In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Arizona is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.08–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Arizona is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.08–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.101.1
20270.590.101.1
20280.590.091.1
20290.580.091.1
20300.580.081.1

Member Species In Arizona

Birds of prey species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western Screech-OwlStrigidae-89%
Northern Pygmy-OwlStrigidae-80%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-79%
Golden EagleAccipitridae-69%
American Barn OwlTytonidae-65%
Elf OwlStrigidae-58%
White-tailed KiteAccipitridae-57%
American GoshawkAccipitridae-56%
Black VultureCathartidae-53%
Peregrine FalconFalconidae-52%
Prairie FalconFalconidae-45%
American KestrelFalconidae-38%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae-18%
Harris's HawkAccipitridae-16%
Zone-tailed HawkAccipitridae-13%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae+7%
Burrowing OwlStrigidae+52%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+61%
OspreyPandionidae+86%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+127%
Swainson's HawkAccipitridae+589%
Gray HawkAccipitridae+663%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.