BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cooper's Hawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesBirds of prey

Cooper's Hawk in Arizona has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-18%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cooper's Hawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cooper's Hawk in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Cooper's Hawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Arizona is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Arizona is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.22
20270.090.000.22
20280.090.000.22
20290.090.000.22
20300.080.000.22

Cooper's Hawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinetop320222021
House Rock219811976
Toroweap220192001
Red Rock220071997
Black Mesa119941991
Portal120251975
Dragoon120011993
Rucker120041995
Rose Wells119741974
Sawmill120062006
Prescott120221977
Aztec Peak119781974
Blue119801977
Pomerene120241974
San Simon119821982
Peña Blanca120101979
Patagonia120191969
Sunizona119921980
Skull Valley 2120252025
Page120122012
Riviera120142010
Greasewood120032003
Skull Valley120231998
Tonto Vill.120252006
Forest Lakes120252006

Cooper's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.