BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cooper's Hawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Cooper's Hawk in Arizona has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-26%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cooper's Hawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cooper's Hawk in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Cooper's Hawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.22
20260.080.000.21
20270.080.000.21
20280.080.000.21
20290.080.000.21

Cooper's Hawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinetop320222021
House Rock219811976
Toroweap220192001
Red Rock220071997
Black Mesa119941991
Portal120211975
Dragoon120011993
Rucker120041995
Rose Wells119741974
Sawmill120062006
Prescott120221977
Aztec Peak119781974
Blue119801977
Pomerene120241974
San Simon119821982
Peña Blanca120101979
Patagonia120191969
Sunizona119921980
Page120122012
Riviera120142010
Greasewood120032003
Skull Valley120231998
Tonto Vill.120062006
Forest Lakes120242006
Palo Verde120111998

Cooper's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.