BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cooper's Hawk Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Cooper's Hawk in Virginia has surged: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+185%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cooper's Hawk Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cooper's Hawk has surged in Virginia: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Cooper's Hawk Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.030.20
20260.120.030.21
20270.120.030.21
20280.120.040.21
20290.120.040.21

Cooper's Hawk Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown320081997
Tryme220222016
Isom220162010
Saltville219991973
Star Tannery120122011
Churchville120241998
Stanley120221968
Edinburg120031970
Jerome120192004
Dryden119911991
Port Royal120101996
Partlow120051990
David120051995
Putnam120161974
Covington120152015
Rural Retrt120132013
Fincastle119871982
Natural Brid120221997
Gloucester120152009
Big Island120111990
Covesville120232003
Carters Brdg119821982
Shipman120182015
Concord120242012
Truhart120242006

Cooper's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.