Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Elf Owl Population Trend in Arizona
Elf Owl in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
-60%Since 1974
12Routes In State
23Years
Notable Elf Owl Trends in Arizona
long arc declinecomputed index
Elf Owl has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
Elf Owl Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Elf Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.03Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1495% range
±113.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| 2026 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| 2027 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| 2029 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
Elf Owl Survey Routes in Arizona
| Organ Pipe | 8 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Bates Well | 4 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Patagonia | 1 | 2005 | 1974 |
| Carr Mtn | 1 | 2021 | 2002 |
| Bartlett Res | 1 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Wikieup | 1 | 2019 | 1995 |
| Redington | 1 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Cabeza Priet | 1 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Quartzsite | 1 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Laguna | 1 | 1980 | 1968 |
| Ajo | 1 | 2001 | 2000 |
| Peña Blanca | 1 | 2006 | 1986 |
Elf Owl Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.