BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Elf Owl Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Elf Owl in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-60%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Elf Owl Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Elf Owl has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Elf Owl Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Elf Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Elf Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.14
20260.030.000.14
20270.030.000.14
20280.030.000.14
20290.030.000.14

Elf Owl Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Elf Owl in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe820032003
Bates Well420032003
Patagonia120051974
Carr Mtn120212002
Bartlett Res120072007
Wikieup120191995
Redington120232023
Cabeza Priet120242024
Quartzsite120192019
Laguna119801968
Ajo120012000
Peña Blanca120061986

Elf Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.