BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Elf Owl

StrigidaeBirds of preyMicrathene whitneyi

Elf Owl has no long-term trend on record.

n/aSince n/aTrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Elf Owl

The Elf Owl (Micrathene whitneyi) is a North American member of the Owls (Strigidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
5–27.5 in long (13–70 cm) — a nocturnal raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 21 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 3 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Strigidae · Birds of prey

Notable Elf Owl TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Elf Owl. See the full index history below.

Elf Owl Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Elf Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Elf Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.00
20260.000.000.00
20270.000.000.00
20280.000.000.00
20290.000.000.00

Where the Elf Owl Is Detected

BBS routes recording Elf Owl, sized by most recent count.

Elf Owl Population Trend by State

Elf Owl population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-60%197412
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a1
Texas-11%19978

Elf Owl Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Elf Owl population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-45%19807
Sierra Madre Occidental-70%19865
Chihuahuan Desert-26%19977

Elf Owl Conservation Status

Elf Owl is tracked across BBS survey routes; no formal conservation-status flag is recorded here.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.