BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Arizona has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Arizona is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.10–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Arizona is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.10–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.100.83
20260.460.100.83
20270.470.100.83
20280.470.100.83
20290.470.100.83

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casa Grande420231989
Ajo 2420192010
Dragoon320091993
Flagstaff320102010
Dateland320211990
Cabeza Priet320192014
Mcneal320241992
Wickenburg320222017
Hope319921992
Organ Pipe220221991
Quartzsite220151990
Peña Blanca220171979
Cutter 2220182018
Forest Lakes219971995
Gila Bend220222000
Palo Verde220131993
Cutter219981993
Araby220221993
Mt. Graham220182018
Hope 2220182014
Navajo Trail220152015
Happy Jack220171977
Mt Trumbull119771977
Portal120211975
Rucker119951995

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.