BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Virginia has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±201.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.22
20260.080.000.22
20270.080.000.21
20280.070.000.21
20290.070.000.21

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Market519961996
Jerome419971992
Taylorstown319791969
Hall319851982
Brandon320091996
W Augusta220231985
Churchville219961996
Fincastle220121989
Amherst219861986
Quinby220091991
Cape Charles220061999
Moran220192013
Shenandoa Np220062005
Iron Mtn.220042002
Star Tannery119851985
Stanley119911970
Tryme119841976
Edinburg119721972
Nat Tunnel119871983
Port Royal120121991
Partlow120002000
David119981996
Bald Knob119941994
Putnam119951995
Covington120032003

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.