BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-52%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Arkansas is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.01–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Arkansas is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.01–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.010.23
20270.120.010.23
20280.120.010.23
20290.120.010.23
20300.120.010.23

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine Mtn420132012
Ashdown220071977
West Tyler219831969
Crows219901990
Hollywood219711971
Waldron219961968
Harrisburg219891968
Lurton220021971
Sims220162013
Lockesburg220102010
Nance220211998
Poyen 2220162011
Old Milo119771977
Eudora120111971
Ramsey119921992
Locust Bayou120022002
Stamps120022002
Hope119861979
Hughes120231998
South Bend120061987
Crowley'S Ridge120212012
Augusta119981977
Saffell120121997
Rupert119931993
Stark120072006

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.