BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Texas has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
178Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Texas is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.05–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Texas is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.05–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.060.60
20260.330.060.60
20270.330.060.60
20280.330.050.59
20290.320.050.59

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casa Piedra620091986
Pedro Creek620101996
Encinal520101969
Campbellton520181969
Arenosa Crk520191978
Rock Island520241992
Albany420241971
Wolfe City419851971
Oyster Lake420212021
Three Rivers420241994
Millett420101997
Harper319891969
Kempner320061980
Cottonwood320211973
Rhome320121974
Olney320241977
Grayback320091982
El Indio320011996
Rankin319971987
Booker320031992
Rockspring320051997
Williams320211998
Marathon320162005
Kingsville220111975
Randado220231970

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.