BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in North Carolina has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+36%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in North Carolina is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in North Carolina is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.26
20260.100.000.26
20270.090.000.26
20280.090.000.25
20290.090.000.25

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jarvisburg619921992
Saxapahaw520081981
Congleton420242002
Jackson420172017
Osmond320122012
Montague320211993
Genoa319941992
Wards Corner220151993
Arapahoe219941994
Dismal Swamp220021993
Spring Hope220132013
Call220221980
Cayton220212014
Newport220132012
Flay220221994
Hendersonvil220161997
Lloyd Xroads220172015
Supply220241992
Bullock220241997
California 2220242015
Merrimon120131998
Hallsboro120011988
Raeford119911991
Sheep Ridge120162003
Broad Creek120132004

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.