BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Tennessee has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+173%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has surged in Tennessee: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Tennessee is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Tennessee is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.24
20260.100.000.24
20270.100.000.24
20280.100.000.24
20290.110.000.24

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sweetlips420231972
Cornpone320171991
Campbellsville320131984
Union Hill320031991
Climer319961981
Tiptonville220141988
Big Sandy220241985
Silerton219891989
Pond Creek220111988
Tullahoma219811981
Signal Mtn120241995
Pawpaw120121984
Moscow119931989
Brownsville120161997
Tibbs120222017
Willis Sprng120122012
Mansfield119961996
Trenton119901989
Humboldt119861986
Indian Mound119881988
Collinwood120241986
Lewis Forest120101997
Belotes Bend119931993
Petersburg119991974
Peytonsville119981986

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.