BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Alaska has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-49%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Alaska is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Alaska is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.28
20260.040.000.27
20270.040.000.27
20280.030.000.27
20290.030.000.26

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Slana220191994
Northway220012000
Monahan220161993
Chena Hot Spring 2220112001
Burma Road220102010
Nicholai Sl220241994
Kanuti Canyn220241993
Manley Ht Sp220182018
Mud River220242000
L Salcha220191983
Delta220242000
Kenny Lake220191990
Tupuknuk219951995
Copper River219951995
Selawik (Short)219861986
Eagle120141997
Circle120171987
Birch Lake120112000
Livengood120192019
Nabesna Road120001991
Tower Bluffs120191996
Chistochina120081993
Kuskulana119901990
Cantwell120192010
Mccarthy Rd2119941994

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.