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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Alaska

All statesBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-61%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.27
20270.040.000.27
20280.030.000.27
20290.030.000.26
20300.030.000.26

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Slana220191994
Monahan220161993
Burma Road220102010
Kanuti Canyn220241993
Manley Ht Sp220182018
Mud River220242000
L Salcha220191983
Delta220242000
Kenny Lake220191990
Tupuknuk219951995
Copper River219951995
Selawik (Short)219861986
Eagle120141997
Circle120171987
Birch Lake120112000
Livengood120192019
Nabesna Road120001991
Tower Bluffs120251996
Chistochina120081993
Northway120242000
Kuskulana119901990
Cantwell120192010
Chena Hot Spring 2120252001
Mccarthy Rd2119941994
Goose Bay119751975

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.