BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.25
20260.070.000.24
20270.070.000.24
20280.070.000.24
20290.070.000.24

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little Fork520132013
Ashby320052003
Lakeville220211977
Chokio220081985
Edwards219731973
Fairmont220212017
Worthington220062006
Nett Lake220212021
Tamarac Nwr220042004
New London220181996
Chokio North220222016
Mcgregor219991994
Brainerd220141996
Lockhart220071998
Chatfield 2220242005
Money Creek120151983
Chatfield119901970
Hartland119901970
Huntley120121979
Chandler119831976
Ash Creek120061975
Millville119841976
Minnetonka120032003
Arlington119961994
Courtland120221985

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.