BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in New Mexico has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in New Mexico is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in New Mexico is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.060.41
20270.230.060.41
20280.230.060.41
20290.230.060.41
20300.230.060.41

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gage420251986
Magdalena320241997
Red Rock320242011
Cebolla219971977
Ojo Sarco220071980
Salt Lake 2220222003
Claunch219991980
Roswell220241968
Mountainair220151993
Reserve220251993
Pep220232002
Sunshine Wll220212015
Nageesi120242016
Farley120172017
Grenville120111969
Torreon120241975
La Cienega119781978
Pecos119731973
Fence Lake120211975
Cooley Lake120071998
Floyd120131980
Horse Mtn119741969
Carrizozo119781974
Caprock120222012
Dulce120122012

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.