BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Missouri has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Horned Owl Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Missouri is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Missouri is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.55
20260.160.000.55
20270.150.000.54
20280.140.000.53
20290.140.000.53

Great Horned Owl Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pineville420241975
Madison419981972
Cassville320021984
Cp Girardeau320222018
Clementine319891974
Frazier320241967
Bolckow319881967
West Plains320222022
Osage Beach320232003
Wesco219921981
Filley220121975
Sni Mills219871976
Rensselaer219711971
Warren219831976
Rockingham219971972
Stet219951972
Miller220222014
Watson220191993
Bennett220091999
Crane220112011
Milford220172017
Richland220172017
Moselle220242017
Sedalia220221992
Deventer120221994

Great Horned Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.