BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Harris's Hawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Harris's Hawk in Arizona has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-3%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Harris's Hawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Harris's Hawk in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Harris's Hawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Arizona is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Arizona is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.26
20260.130.000.26
20270.130.000.26
20280.130.000.26
20290.130.000.26

Harris's Hawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Harris's Hawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casa Grande520221994
Wickenburg420232023
Organ Pipe320171991
Cibola Lake320001994
Florence219761974
Ajo 2220102010
Cactus Forest220191993
Wikieup120171993
New River120151976
Coolidge119801980
San Simon119941984
Lukeville119761976
Bates Well120231995
Red Rock 2120242016
Alamo Res.119971997
Palo Verde119931993
Bartlett Res120242006
Red Rock120101992
Cabeza Priet120241993

Harris's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.