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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Harris's Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Harris's Hawk in Texas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Harris's Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Harris's Hawk has fallen sharply in Texas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Harris's Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Harris's Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.000.54
20270.220.000.54
20280.210.000.53
20290.210.000.53
20300.200.000.52

Harris's Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Harris's Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millett 21320242013
Agua Nueva1120231969
Zapata1019871967
Encinal 2820252011
Loyola Beach620091994
Lag Atascosa520251993
Encinal420101969
Sejita420231994
Laredo420231994
Millett420121995
Pedro Creek420051996
San Ygnacio319851967
L. Atascosa Nwr320251998
George West320181968
Adamsville319771977
Langtry319951995
Wink319811978
Kingsville220231967
Petronila219921992
Mirando City220251969
Campbellton220191984
Catarina220101970
Pumpville220122012
Progreso220092004
Presidio220252000

Harris's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.