BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Arizona has surged: up 616% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+616%Since 1970
30Routes In State
51Years

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Arizona: up 616% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Arizona is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029
0.52Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±34.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.500.001.7
20260.510.001.7
20270.510.001.7
20280.510.001.7
20290.520.001.7

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Arizona.
Sunizona 2920242001
San Simon720241974
Dateland420162000
Patagonia420241970
Mcneal420241992
Rose Wells219691968
Coolidge219821976
Peña Blanca220242017
Sunizona219971968
Seligman220232012
Dragoon120001993
Portal120052005
Rucker120041993
Hunt119761976
Pomerene120241974
Cutter 2120182015
Dry Park119961996
Antares120241994
Maine119971997
Skull Valley120242001
Cutter119951995
Alpine120212004
Red Rock120111999
Cabeza Priet119961996
Amado120221994

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.