BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Arizona has surged: up 589% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+589%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Arizona: up 589% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Arizona is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Arizona is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.001.7
20270.530.001.7
20280.530.001.7
20290.540.001.7
20300.540.001.7

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San Simon720241974
Pomerene620251974
Amado620251994
Sunizona 2620252001
Dateland420162000
Patagonia420241970
Cactus Forest420252002
Mcneal320251992
Rose Wells219691968
Coolidge219821976
Peña Blanca220242017
Sunizona219971968
Skull Valley 2220252025
Seligman220232012
Dragoon120001993
Portal120052005
Rucker120041993
Hunt119761976
Cutter 2120182015
Dry Park120251996
Antares120251994
Maine119971997
Skull Valley120242001
Cutter119951995
Alpine120212004

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.