BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Oregon has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Oregon: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.49
20260.230.000.49
20270.230.000.49
20280.230.000.49
20290.230.000.49

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Umatilla820231990
Bridgeport520211988
Merrill520221997
Sheaville520222012
Trout Creek520211996
Joseph320241972
Eightmile320241990
Adrian320212004
Cecil320222001
Crane320241993
Three Forks220052005
Ordnance219791974
Malheur Nwr220221989
Alvord Lake220241968
Battle Mtn220241992
Malheur Res.220222022
Blitzen 2120231994
Lone Rock120241971
Albee120161973
Imnaha119771975
Summit Pr119981998
Zumwalt120021995
Deschutes120232010
Lapham Res.119971993
Fandango Can120241998

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.