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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Oregon

All statesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Oregon has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Oregon: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oregon is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oregon is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.000.52
20270.250.000.52
20280.250.000.52
20290.260.000.52
20300.260.000.53

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joseph720251972
Blitzen 2520251994
Bridgeport520211988
Montague520251975
Green Mtn.520251995
Merrill520221997
Alvord Lake420251968
Sheaville420252012
Trout Creek420251996
Adrian320212004
Crane320241993
Three Forks220052005
Ordnance219791974
Fandango Can220251998
Malheur Nwr220221989
Sparta220251975
Battle Mtn220241992
Mikkalo220251997
Cecil220252001
Madras220251998
Umatilla220251990
Malheur Res.220222022
Modoc Point 2120252025
Lone Rock120241971
Albee120161973

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.