BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Utah has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-41%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Utah. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Utah is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Utah is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.001.5
20260.410.001.5
20270.410.001.4
20280.400.001.4
20290.390.001.4

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Snowville1320242006
Randolph620241993
Promontory420241969
Hyrum419791976
Beck419871972
Timpie Spg320031979
Oak City320241972
Lynn320231983
Goose Creek Mtn.320231998
Johnson Can320221990
Delta320241990
Goshen220241970
E. Bear Lake220211996
Castleton219771977
Grouse Creek220081987
Vernon220241993
Leamington220171994
Fayette220191994
Grantsville220242001
Westwater220172001
Pine Creek220232010
Wah Wah220192019
Wellington 3120242024
Moon Lake 2120172014
Salt Springs120192011

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.