BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.82.03.5
20262.82.03.6
20272.82.13.6
20282.92.13.6
20292.92.13.7

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San Simon1620191979
Hobbs1120241994
Caprock1020241977
Bitter Lake920231994
Pep920241992
Roswell720231968
Sunshine Wll720241992
Jornada620241974
Datil619951993
Gage520241968
Maxwell520241996
Red Rock520241992
Farley420241979
Lakewood420211987
Rodeo420241974
Raton419941994
Sedan420241994
Lake Valley420241979
Grenville320241968
Gallo Arroyo320211997
Clovis320241993
Laborcita320191993
Logan320241978
Correo219801980
Horse Mtn220241970

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.