BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in New Mexico: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.2–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.2–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.82.03.5
20272.82.13.6
20282.92.13.6
20292.92.13.7
20302.92.23.7

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San Simon1620191979
Caprock1620251977
Rosebud1220251994
Jornada1120251974
Sunshine Wll1020251992
Pep920241992
Maxwell720251996
Bitter Lake720251994
Hobbs720251994
Datil619951993
Rodeo520251974
Columbus520251992
Lakewood420211987
Raton419941994
Sedan420251994
Lake Valley420241979
Cooley Lake320251974
Floyd320251968
Gallo Arroyo320211997
Laborcita 2320252022
Clovis320241993
Laborcita320191993
Red Rock320251992
Farley220251979
Grenville220251968

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.