BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Louisiana has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 2003.

+37%Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19972026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.050.010.09
20230.050.010.09
20240.050.010.10
20250.050.010.10
20260.050.010.10

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ville Platte220112011
Richard220162008
Vinton 2120142014
Maurice120072004
Ltl Chenier120182018
Hackberry120141997
Hackberry 2120212018
Kaplan120092009
Woodlawn120192014
De Quincy120132013
Forked Island120172010
Glencoe120142012
Esther120102010

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.