BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Oklahoma has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+122%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Oklahoma: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.49–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.49–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.451.6
20261.00.461.6
20271.00.471.6
20281.00.481.6
20291.00.491.6

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hooker2020241992
Sickles1220211993
Keyes1120241992
Clear Lake720241992
Cashion520241993
Eagle City420011971
Cooperton420242010
Loco319791967
Chester319881967
Rosston320181969
Felt320241968
Hunter319941992
Cookietown220021969
Beaver220181979
Hollis220191993
Phroso120231993
Phillips119711971
Mill Creek120112011
Ardmore119681968
Randlett120221970
Reed120171968
Canadian119821968
Indianola120081977
Choctaw120011970
Verden120171967

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.