Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Texas
Swainson's Hawk in Texas has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
+53%Since 1969
182Routes In State
57Years
Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in Texas
long arc increasecomputed index
Swainson's Hawk has risen sharply in Texas: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Texas
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+78%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.61–1.695% range
±31.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1 | 0.58 | 1.5 |
| 2026 | 1.1 | 0.58 | 1.5 |
| 2027 | 1.1 | 0.59 | 1.5 |
| 2028 | 1.1 | 0.60 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 1.1 | 0.61 | 1.6 |
Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Texas
| Cactus | 15 | 2024 | 2003 |
| Mcfaddin | 15 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Frankel City | 14 | 2022 | 1975 |
| Plains | 12 | 2017 | 1994 |
| Claytonville | 10 | 2022 | 1995 |
| Circle | 8 | 2024 | 1977 |
| Texline | 8 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Marfa | 7 | 2024 | 2006 |
| Weinert | 6 | 1994 | 1971 |
| Girvin | 6 | 2017 | 1975 |
| Oyster Lake | 6 | 2021 | 1995 |
| Kermit 2 | 6 | 2024 | 2002 |
| Dalhart | 5 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Twichell | 5 | 2023 | 1996 |
| Mirando City | 4 | 1993 | 1972 |
| Cornudas | 4 | 2018 | 1968 |
| El Sauz | 4 | 2023 | 1994 |
| San Ygnacio | 3 | 1985 | 1969 |
| Catarina | 3 | 2010 | 1970 |
| Black Gap | 3 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Post | 3 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Plains | 3 | 2023 | 1968 |
| Childress | 3 | 2024 | 1972 |
| Slaughter | 3 | 2021 | 1976 |
| Pantex | 3 | 2024 | 1974 |
Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.