BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Texas has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
182Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has risen sharply in Texas: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.581.5
20261.10.581.5
20271.10.591.5
20281.10.601.6
20291.10.611.6

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus1520242003
Mcfaddin1520092009
Frankel City1420221975
Plains1220171994
Claytonville1020221995
Circle820241977
Texline820241975
Marfa720242006
Weinert619941971
Girvin620171975
Oyster Lake620211995
Kermit 2620242002
Dalhart520241994
Twichell520231996
Mirando City419931972
Cornudas420181968
El Sauz420231994
San Ygnacio319851969
Catarina320101970
Black Gap319981998
Post320241969
Plains320231968
Childress320241972
Slaughter320211976
Pantex320241974

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.