BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Texas has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
183Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Texas. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.57–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.57–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.541.5
20271.00.551.5
20281.00.551.5
20291.10.561.5
20301.10.571.5

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin1520092009
Frankel City1420221975
Plains1220171994
Cactus1120252003
Claytonville1020221995
Circle820241977
Dougherty820251995
Weinert619941971
Kermit 2620242002
Lakeview520251995
Twichell520231996
Cornudas420181968
El Sauz420231994
Girard420251994
Lag Atascosa320251995
San Ygnacio319851969
Catarina320101970
Comstock320251969
Black Gap319981998
Post320241969
Childress320241972
Slaughter320211976
Waka320251976
Floydada320251976
Rotan320111994

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.