BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Nevada

All statesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Nevada has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+128%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Nevada: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Nevada is projected to rise about 148% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+148%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Nevada is projected to rise about 148% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.000.95
20270.460.000.95
20280.460.000.96
20290.470.000.96
20300.470.000.96

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruby Valley 2420172012
Majors Place420241993
Minerva320241990
Fallon320251992
Gardnerville 2320152015
Calico Spr219701970
Midas220231974
Humboldt Nf220141993
Gardnerville220111992
Dobbin Creek219851972
Willis220092009
Nixon220212010
Mill City220232016
Piute Mdws120192005
Dinner Sta119931991
Ranchogrande120192000
Sand Pass120231987
Fish Creek120212021
Cortez120241968
Walker Can120241968
Mizpah120242024
Sutcliffe119691969
Humboldt Nf 2120252024
Eureka120151968
Hiko119721972

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.