BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has risen sharply in Nebraska: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.29–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.29–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.270.88
20260.580.280.89
20270.590.280.89
20280.590.290.90
20290.600.290.90

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mullen620231990
Marsland520212018
Kimball420221993
Ringgold420241994
Paxton320161970
Dalton320221974
Piester Lake320231967
Gordon320241976
Arthur320241985
Murray Lake320221992
Brownlee320241992
Berea320181984
Holbrook220151973
Bartley220241969
Winside219911967
Benkelman220191991
Brownson220212021
Maxwell220242022
Wheeler Co219841979
Agate 2120242002
Belvidere119861986
Seward120001973
Kenesaw120141978
Kearney120141970
Sumner120171987

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.