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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has risen sharply in Nebraska: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.29–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.29–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.280.88
20270.580.280.89
20280.590.280.89
20290.590.290.90
20300.600.290.90

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mullen620231990
Marsland520212018
Agate 2420252002
Kimball420251993
Benkelman420251991
Ringgold420241994
Paxton320161970
Piester Lake320251967
Murray Lake320221992
Holbrook220151973
Bartley220241969
Dalton220251974
Winside219911967
Table220251995
Brownlee220251992
Berea220251984
Brownson220252021
Wheeler Co219841979
Belvidere119861986
Seward120001973
Kenesaw120141978
Kearney120141970
Sumner120171987
Stratton120251975
Oglala Nat. Grass.120122003

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.