BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Minnesota has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-20%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.06
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.030.000.06
20290.030.000.06

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Creek220171995
Appleton220101985
Chandler120221981
Millville120112011
Lakeville119821982
Big Stone120121995
Courtland120152015
Redwood Fall120062003
Maynard119861986
Dawson119911991
Gluek120131980
Edwards119961982
Glyndon119881988
Beltrami119791979
Wylie119801980
Lude119841984
Lake Bronson119781978
Tyler120242015
Chokio North120242012
Ashby120112011
Lockhart119931993
Greenbush120192019

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.