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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.001.3
20260.620.001.3
20270.610.001.3
20280.610.001.3
20290.600.001.3

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leoti920222000
Plymell820242000
Hodges720082000
Lakin620221967
Ruleton620221982
Grigston620242000
Wellington320191968
St John320101967
Wreford319741972
Albert319851967
Wallace320221967
Ulysses320242000
Coats220181975
Hollenberg219761976
Covert220241967
Jewell219791967
Logan220191967
Gove220131972
Missler220191975
Le Loup220072007
Susank220192019
Winona220182000
Galesburg119701970
Humboldt120131968
Dalton120161968

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.