BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in South Dakota has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Hawk Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.001.8
20260.520.001.8
20270.510.001.7
20280.500.001.7
20290.490.001.7

Swainson's Hawk Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Conde619841967
Marcus520031999
Maurine320241969
Isabel320151990
Badlands320011982
Howard220131981
Winner220241988
Crow Creek220211968
Ft Thompson220071967
Long Lake220191971
Cedar Pass220171967
Fort Pierre220241968
Lodgepole220241990
Hayes220171993
Ardmore220191977
Indian220231995
Railroad Butte220161995
Tripp119861976
White Lake120091968
Geddes120121973
Chamberlain119761968
Rosebud120111967
Rockyford120121967
Volga120121981
Raymond120181983

Swainson's Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.