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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Screech-Owl Population Trend in Arizona

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Western Screech-Owl in Arizona has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-89%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Screech-Owl Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Screech-Owl has collapsed in Arizona: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Western Screech-Owl Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Screech-Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±252.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±252.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Screech-Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±252.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.13
20270.000.000.13
20280.000.000.13
20290.000.000.13
20300.000.000.13

Western Screech-Owl Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Screech-Owl in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sahuarita320082008
Organ Pipe120032003
Wikieup119971992
Laguna119851985
San Simon120241982
Peña Blanca120071999
Patagonia119891989
Cutter 2120152015
Toroweap120172017
Riviera120111992
Alamo Res.120212006
Forest Lakes120252025
Gila Bend120022002
Red Rock120142014
Redington120092005
Casa Grande120112011
Sprucedale120122012
Ajo 2120192019
Cactus Forest120052004

Western Screech-Owl Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.