BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Screech-Owl Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Western Screech-Owl in Arizona has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-86%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Screech-Owl Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Screech-Owl has collapsed in Arizona: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Western Screech-Owl Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Screech-Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Screech-Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.13
20260.000.000.13
20270.000.000.13
20280.000.000.13
20290.000.000.13

Western Screech-Owl Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Screech-Owl in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sahuarita320082008
Patagonia119891989
Organ Pipe120032003
Gila Bend120022002
Cutter 2120152015
Wikieup119971992
Red Rock120142014
Redington120092005
Alamo Res.120212006
Toroweap120172017
Laguna119851985
Casa Grande120112011
Riviera120111992
Sprucedale120122012
Cactus Forest120052004
San Simon120241982
Ajo 2120192019
Peña Blanca120071999

Western Screech-Owl Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.