BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goshawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

American Goshawk in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-56%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goshawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goshawk has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

American Goshawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.030.000.06
20250.030.000.06
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.020.000.06

American Goshawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording American Goshawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine220072003
Patagonia119941994
House Rock119931993
Pinetop120212021
Portal120141976
Tsaile120232023
Sawmill120052005
Sprucedale120061994
Prescott120001995
Mt. Graham120141998
Happy Jack119891989
Dry Park120211992
Blue119911986
Maine119951995

American Goshawk Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.