BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goshawk Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

American Goshawk in Alaska has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-77%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goshawk Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goshawk has collapsed in Alaska: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

American Goshawk Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.10
20270.000.000.10
20280.000.000.10
20290.000.000.10

American Goshawk Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Goshawk in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coldfoot320122012
Donelly Dome220002000
Circle119981998
Chatanika R120122001
Chiniak120242024
Nabesna Road120112011
Kuskulana120222022
Mccarthy Rd2120241992
Chena Hot Spring 2120082008
Burma Road120112011
Skilak Lake119851985
Haines119951975
Hather Creek120071997
Hoonah120051998
Kalifonsky120132013
Mud River120081997
Ruby120172017
St. Mary'S120142014
Zarembo120181996
Porcupine R.119951995
Ft. Richrdsn120092005
Cordova120052005
Thompson Pas120142014
Kenny Lake120151997
Sheep Mtn120062006

American Goshawk Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.