BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goshawk Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

American Goshawk in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-61%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goshawk Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goshawk in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

American Goshawk Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.010.000.03
20180.010.000.03
20190.010.000.03
20200.010.000.03
20210.010.000.03

American Goshawk Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Goshawk in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greentown220031988
Marsh Hill120081989
Ellenton120112011
Pocono Summit119981998
Whig Hill119741974
Rothrock Sf120012001
Ansonia120022002
Odin119921983
Roulette120162008
Rosecrans119911991
Munson119811980
Mawr Glen120131991
Bald Eagle119801980

American Goshawk Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkoregonrhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.