BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goshawk Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

American Goshawk in Montana has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goshawk Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goshawk has fallen sharply in Montana: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Goshawk Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.05
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.000.000.04

American Goshawk Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording American Goshawk in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenough320001996
Libby Dam219901979
St Mary219711969
Polson219911991
Pagil Gulch220222019
Victor119981998
Threemile Wa120062006
Pryor Mtn.120042004
St Regis120012001
Arlee120111968
St Xavier 2120172017
Highwood119961996
Woodman120051972
Clinton119991999
Elliston119941994
Shawmut119881988
Sula120051995
Chestnut120152011
East Glacier Park120182018
Thompson Riv120172017
Ninemile120231994
Pablo Res.120182018
Fish Creek120171995
Skalkaho119961996
Wise River120082008

American Goshawk Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.