BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Arizona has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+52%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Burrowing Owl Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has risen sharply in Arizona: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Burrowing Owl Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Arizona is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Arizona is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.60
20260.170.000.60
20270.160.000.59
20280.160.000.59
20290.160.000.59

Burrowing Owl Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus Forest1520241996
Oraibi320001995
Castle Butte320062005
Clay Spring320242010
Coolidge219831981
Antares220131994
Navajo Trail220232006
House Rock119841984
Rucker120071995
Rose Wells119731972
Oatman120131988
Vicksburg119791973
Laguna120051980
Dateland120151994
San Simon120221971
Patagonia119981994
Sunizona119861973
Palo Verde 2120242014
Toroweap119981998
Many Farms120052005
Greasewood119951995
Palo Verde120111993
Araby120171992
Red Rock120081998
Mcneal120232000

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.