BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Burrowing Owl in Texas has surged: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+287%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Burrowing Owl Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has surged in Texas: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Burrowing Owl Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Texas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.09–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Texas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.09–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.070.92
20270.500.070.93
20280.510.080.93
20290.510.090.94
20300.520.090.94

Burrowing Owl Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pantex9120241976
Pecos1820172017
Dalhart1120251994
Texline820251975
Saragosa620252022
Slaughter619991973
Dougherty620252005
Plains520172004
Marfa420232015
Kermit419991999
Post420241971
Wink419811975
Skellytown420221998
Cactus420252003
El Indio319721972
Mentone320071999
Lamesa320251975
Plains320251968
Floydada320251980
Beaver Creek320051994
Claytonville320221995
Friona320252002
Marathon220252004
Van Horn220172017
Casa Piedra220041992

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.