BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Texas has surged: up 328% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+328%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Burrowing Owl Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has surged in Texas: up 328% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Burrowing Owl Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Texas is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.10–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Texas is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.10–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.070.93
20260.510.080.94
20270.510.090.94
20280.520.090.95
20290.520.100.95

Burrowing Owl Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pantex9120241976
Cactus2020242003
Pecos1820172017
Floydada1220241980
Dougherty1120242005
Slaughter619991973
Texline520241975
Plains520172004
Marfa420232015
Kermit419991999
Post420241971
Wink419811975
Skellytown420221998
El Indio319721972
Rankin320241968
Mentone320071999
Lamesa320231975
Midland320232001
Beaver Creek320051994
Claytonville320221995
Panhandle320242001
Dalhart320241994
Marathon220232004
Van Horn220172017
Saragosa220242022

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradofloridaidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.