BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Burrowing Owl Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Burrowing Owl Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.27
20260.010.000.26
20270.010.000.26
20280.000.000.25
20290.000.000.25

Burrowing Owl Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lark319801969
Denbigh219761976
Wild Rose219981982
Solen220242006
Carson119911988
Sydney119761976
Lake George120101973
Horsehead Lk120071980
Buchanan120172017
Lakota120082008
Regan120001975
Ft Yates119821970
Dickinson120181974
Dunn Center120111970
Carpio119861971
Loraine119881988
Tobacco119771977
Stanley119841967
Bowman120051968
Zap119921968
Gorham119941969
Roosevelt Pk120162016
Cedar Creek120061978
Golva120181979
Bentley120141988

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.