BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in New Mexico has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Burrowing Owl Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Burrowing Owl in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Burrowing Owl Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in New Mexico is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.20–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in New Mexico is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.20–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.181.9
20261.10.181.9
20271.10.191.9
20281.10.201.9
20291.10.201.9

Burrowing Owl Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter Lake1420231994
Sedan620241994
Farley520161979
Rosebud520231994
Pep520241992
Roswell420231968
Sanostee420242024
Tucumcari319751975
Cooley Lake320241972
Quemado319961993
Salt Lake 2220232003
Floyd220231968
Horse Spgs220231978
Variadero220181998
Hobbs220191998
Hatchet Peak220032003
Columbus220241992
Lake Valley220101979
Nageesi120241988
San Simon120191979
Grenville120211968
Crownpoint119951989
Torreon120241991
La Cienega120071968
Wagon Mound119771972

Burrowing Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.