BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Arizona

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Northern Pygmy-Owl in Arizona has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-80%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pygmy-Owl Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pygmy-Owl has collapsed in Arizona: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.010.000.10
20290.010.000.10
20300.010.000.10

Northern Pygmy-Owl Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blue319871987
House Rock119931993
Portal120191985
Rucker120092009
Alpine120212003
Prescott120222022
Mt. Graham120252018
Sahuarita120082008
Sprucedale120081992

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.