BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pygmy-Owl

StrigidaeBirds of preyGlaucidium gnoma

Northern Pygmy-Owl has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+98%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
273RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Northern Pygmy-Owl

The Northern Pygmy-Owl (Glaucidium gnoma) is a North American member of the Owls (Strigidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
5–27.5 in long (13–70 cm) — a nocturnal raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 273 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Family
Strigidae · Birds of prey

Notable Northern Pygmy-Owl TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.01
20260.010.000.01
20270.010.000.01
20280.010.000.01
20290.010.000.01

Where the Northern Pygmy-Owl Is Detected

BBS routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl, sized by most recent count.

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend by State

Northern Pygmy-Owl population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-9%19946
Arizona-69%19929
California-36%197099
Colorado-5%199617
Idahoinsufficient datan/a8
Montana-36%198612
New Mexico-54%199510
Oregon-37%197458
Utahinsufficient datan/a8
Washington-4%198341
Wyominginsufficient datan/a5

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Northern Pygmy-Owl population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+34%197281
Great Basin-62%197832
Northern Rockies-51%198544
Sierra Nevada-74%197233
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-32%198831
Coastal California-50%197237
Sierra Madre Occidental-65%199211

Northern Pygmy-Owl Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 98% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.