BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Oregon

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Northern Pygmy-Owl in Oregon has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-46%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pygmy-Owl Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Oregon is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Oregon is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.17
20270.090.000.17
20280.090.000.17
20290.090.000.17
20300.090.000.17

Northern Pygmy-Owl Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Hood320182018
Blue River320161993
Harlan 2220252011
Barnes Val219841984
Secret Val220101976
Trask Summit220161995
Barnhouse220221999
Ruch220252001
Eagle Creek219961996
Shellrock119951995
Molalla120242021
Riley Peak120152008
Flora119861986
Summit Pr120131988
Salado119941994
Cool Camp119691969
Lapham Res.119961996
Santiam120251999
Bull Run120242011
Nicolai Mtn.120222011
Winberry120191977
Dell Spring119811969
Fandango Can119881988
Wizard Falls120232007
Wedderburn120002000

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.